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The Old Farmer’s Almanac Predictions for snow in Madison, WI

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Ice skating on frozen Tenney Lagoon. | Photo by @the_kuzicki_adventures

Last year we saw flurries on Halloween + this year kids were out trick-or-treating without being bundled up. The warm-for-Wisconsin weather has us wondering — when will this year’s first snowfall happen?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a shift to bitter cold for this winter season, with Madison predicted to have a cold + dry wintertide, meaning we’ll have colder temps but less snow. Now we’re curious... How accurate is the oldest continuously published periodical for Madison snowfall?

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A breakdown of this year’s upcoming winter conditions. | Photo from The Old Farmer’s Almanac

In order to make its yearly predictions, the Farmer’s Almanac looks at solar science, — the study of sunspots + other activity — climatology, and meteorology. The publication claims to have an 80% accuracy rate on its predictions.

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A light dusting of snow over the isthmus. | Photo by @wineguyphotography

Take a look at the last three winters and decide for yourself if Madison winters were accurately predicted.

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

Typically, the average date for the first 1″ snowfall in Madison is Nov. 27. And, based on a cold + dry forecast for southern Wisconsin, we’re guessing we might not see snow until the end of the month. But hey, don’t quote us on that.