Last year we saw flurries on Halloween + this year kids were out trick-or-treating without being bundled up. The warm-for-Wisconsin weather has us wondering — when will this year’s first snowfall happen?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a shift to bitter cold for this winter season, with Madison predicted to have a cold + dry wintertide, meaning we’ll have colder temps but less snow. Now we’re curious... How accurate is the oldest continuously published periodical for Madison snowfall?
In order to make its yearly predictions, the Farmer’s Almanac looks at solar science, — the study of sunspots + other activity — climatology, and meteorology. The publication claims to have an 80% accuracy rate on its predictions.
Take a look at the last three winters and decide for yourself if Madison winters were accurately predicted.
2018-2019
- Almanac prediction — warm + wet
- First snow > 1” in Madison — Nov. 9
- Last snow > 1” in Madison — April 27
- Number of days below 0°F — 20 days
- Total snowfall — 57”
2019-2020
- Almanac prediction — mild, with soakers
- First snow > 1” in Madison — Oct. 28
- Last snow > 1” in Madison — March 18
- Number of days below 0°F — 4 days
- Total snowfall — 54”
2020-2021
- Almanac prediction — more wet than white
- First snow > 1” in Madison — Nov. 24
- Last snow > 1” in Madison — March 15
- Total snowfall — 55”
Typically, the average date for the first 1″ snowfall in Madison is Nov. 27. And, based on a cold + dry forecast for southern Wisconsin, we’re guessing we might not see snow until the end of the month. But hey, don’t quote us on that.
